ABC - Cyclone Laila

Our Summit Day has now been bumped forward a day to avoid Cyclone Laila which has reared her ugly head in the Bay of Bengal. This makes our new Summit Day the early morning of Sunday, May 23rd. There have been some rumours about Laila in the weather forecasts of the past few days but todays report was a bit too clear to ignore... I’ve included some relevant sections in the end section of this entry. Combined with the wind tearing away at my tent, the gargantuan of spin-drift blowing off of Everests' summit, and the unexpected layer of snow that fell again last night, the report makes for some nail-biting reading..

I have mixed emotions about the news – weather has always been one of my worries especially as the stories of ‘Into Thin Air’ played on my mind. I’d already felt first-hand what a 50mph wind felt like at ABC and dreaded to imagine what it would be like going up or down the North Col, let alone the 2nd Step..! The unpredictable nature of a cyclone and its associated winds could prove to be fatal if our ascent was not timed correctly....

I packed my rucksack in preparations for tomorrow’s ascent of the North Col and spent the rest of the afternoon worrying and wishing that there was something decent left in the luxury barrel to quell my binge-eating... even Ganu’s infamous Sherpa Stew wasn’t doing the trick.

There was ominous sense of anticipation and quiet confidence in the camp and it felt like we were the only ones left at ABC. A steady stream of people could be seen in the distance braving the winds and blowing snow and heading up the North Col. I knew that my friends from Summit Climb, Gav, Laval and Mark as well as the young Jordan were among these and I wished them well...

Even dinner was quiet for a change – Summit Day was on everyones mind. So many conversations had been had on the topic, now that it was so close it seemed like all words had been exhausted. It was Josh who finally piped up for a much needed ‘team building’ exercise and a few choice-words. His timing could not have been better and I was grateful for his professionalism, friendship and leadership. I think Joshs’ words ultimately got me thinking and reassessing my own personal situation with respect to my ribs. I tried to push it out of my mind as I crawled into my tent for what I thought would be my last good nights sleep for a few long days....

WEATHER FORECAST from Michael Fagan (http://www.woweather.com)

Saturday May 22

Jet shifted to the north but is close and there are some small bands of winds at 50 mph (80 km/hr) just to the south. Thus some very wide swings in summit winds with usually strongest later in the day.

• Average Summit winds 34 to 48 mph (54 to 76 km/hr) west to southwest

• Average Winds at 27,300 feet (8282 meters) 32 to 44 mph (51 to 70 km/hr) west to southwest.

• Average Winds at 24,700 feet (7575 meters) 26 to 38 mph (41 to 60 km/hr) west to southwest

• Average Winds at 23,100 feet (7000 meters) 20 to 30 mph (32 to 48 km/hr) west to southwest

• Temperatures Night summit temperatures close to Night summit temperatures close to -18 F ( -28 C), same as the prior day

Sunday May 23 (the new SUMMIT DAY!!)

Jet shifted to the north but is close and there are some small bands of winds at 50 mph (80 km/hr) just to the south. Thus some very wide swings in summit winds with usually strongest later in the day.

• Average Summit winds 30 to 46 mph (48 to 73 km/hr) west to southwest.

• Average Winds at 27,300 feet (8282 meters) 30 to 46 mph (48 to 72 km/hr) west to southwest.

• Average Winds at 24,700 feet (7575 meters) 20 to 38 mph (32 to 60 km/hr) west to southwest

• Average Winds at 23,100 feet (7000 meters) 20 to 30 mph (32 to 73 km/hr) west to southwest

• Summit Clouds: Clouds in and out of the region.

• Temperatures Night summit temperatures close to Night summit temperatures close to -18 F ( -28 C), same as prior day

Summary

Short term summary now through Tuesday May 25

The jet stream will slowly shift slightly to the north during the day on Friday May 21 so we will have a slow reduction in winds and that continues into Saturday May 22. The jet will be close enough for some strong winds over the weekend at times. Then on Monday May 24 and Tuesday May 25 a slight reduction in winds continues.

The cyclone is slowly weakening and all forecast models indicate that the cyclone will not make a direct hit on our region and will be to the south and east of us by Tuesday May 25. We will certainly get clouds from this and a greater chance of precipitation, however the amounts seem to be tricky.

Medium term summary Wednesday May 25 to Thursday May 27

Most models keep the jet to the north. With the cyclone to the east of our region we would think the chance of heavy precipitation would be limited. However the monsoon is slowly advancing and we have the moist southerly winds so moderate precipitation is always possible but too difficult to predict in advance

Storms in Bay of Bengal

Cyclonic storm Laila lays well to the south and west of our region now. It is slowly weakening and over the next several days will move to the north and east and will not make a direct hit on our region.